By Peter L. Bernstein
A enterprise Week, long island occasions company, and united states at the present time Bestseller
"Ambitious and readable . . . an attractive creation to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as actual humanists supporting to free up mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." -The manhattan Times
"An terribly enjoyable and informative book." -The Wall highway Journal
"A full of life panoramic e-book . . . opposed to the Gods units up an bold premise after which gives you on it." -Business Week
"Deserves to be, and definitely might be, greatly read." -The Economist
"[A] not easy booklet, person who may perhaps switch without end the best way humans take into consideration the world." -Worth
"No one else can have written a publication of such crucial value with a lot appeal and excitement." -Robert Heilbroner writer, The Worldly Philosophers
"With his impressive wisdom of the background and present manifestations of probability, Peter Bernstein brings us opposed to the Gods. not anything love it will pop out of the monetary global this 12 months or ever. I converse rigorously: not anyone should still pass over it." -John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University
during this specific exploration of the function of danger in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the thought of bringing possibility lower than keep watch over is likely one of the vital principles that distinguishes smooth instances from the far away prior. opposed to the Gods chronicles the striking highbrow event that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers through the robust instruments of possibility administration which are to be had to us today.
"An tremendous readable background of risk." -Barron's
"Fascinating . . . this not easy quantity might help the uncertainties that each investor needs to face." -Money
"A singular achievement." -Times Literary Supplement
"There's a turning out to be marketplace for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein might mingle good of their company." -The Australian
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Additional info for Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Time transforms risk, and the nature of risk is shaped by the time horizon: the future is the playing field. Time matters most when decisions are irreversible. And yet many irreversible decisions must be made on the basis of incomplete information. Irreversibility dominates decisions ranging all the way from taking the subway instead of a taxi, 30 to building an automobile factory in Brazil, to changing jobs, to declaring war. If we buy a stock today, we can always sell it tomorrow. ” or after a poker bet is doubled?
159. 3. , p. 150. 4. This entire paragraph is from Bolen, 1976. 41 5. Excellent background on all this may be found in David, 1962, pp. 2–21. 6. See David, 1962, p. 34. 7. Hayano, 1982. 8. Johnson, 1995. 9. See David, p. 2. 10. Sambursky, 1956, p. 36. 11. , p. 37. 12. , pp. 36–40. 13. Rabinovitch, 1969. 14. Frankfort, 1956; quoted in Heilbroner, 1995, p. 23. See also David, 1962, pp. 21–26. 15. See Eves, 1983, p. 136. 42 Chapter 2 As Easy as I, II, III Without numbers, there are no odds and no probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates.
See Hogben, 1968, pp. 244–246. 10. From Newman, 1988a, p. 433. 11. The background material on al-Khowârizmî is primarily from Muir, 1961, and Hogben, 1968. 12. Hogben, 1968, p. 243. 13. See Hogben, 1968, Chapter VI, for an extended and stimulating discussion of the development of algebra and the uses of zero. 14. The background material on Omar Khayyam is from Fitzgerald. 15. Hogben, 1968, p. 245. 63 1200–1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS 64 Chapter 3 The Renaissance Gambler Piero della Francesca, who painted the picture of the Virgin that appears on the following page (“The Brera Madonna”), lived from about 1420 to 1492, more than two hundred years after Fibonacci.